BUDIN
SUNDAY'S PICK COSTA RICA CONNECTION
25 DIME RELEASE
New England
I got this play at 2:00 Eastern on Friday afternoon. At that time the line was -4 just about everywhere in Vegas and offshore. If you have -4 - or even -4 1/2 - I want you to buy down the 1/2 point for insurance no matter the case.
SUNDAY'S PICK COSTA RICA CONNECTION
25 DIME RELEASE
New England
I got this play at 2:00 Eastern on Friday afternoon. At that time the line was -4 just about everywhere in Vegas and offshore. If you have -4 - or even -4 1/2 - I want you to buy down the 1/2 point for insurance no matter the case.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6
NFL
Denver (7-4 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (3-8, 5-6 ATS)
The Broncos aim to keep their playoff position intact when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the division rival Chiefs.
Denver pounded the Giants 26-6 on Thanksgiving night as a 4½-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slide that followed a 6-0 SU and ATS start. After four games of allowing 27 points or more, the Broncos’ defense looked more like a unit that, for the season, is yielding just 17.2 ppg (fifth). Denver also stands fifth in total defense (295 ypg), helping compensate for an offense gaining 327.5 ypg (18th) and scoring just 17.8 ppg (24th).
Kansas City followed its huge home upset of the Steelers with a blowout loss at San Diego on Sunday, falling 43-14 as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog to end a two-game SU and three-game ATS surge. The Chiefs are among the league’s worst defensively, allowing 392.9 ypg (30th) and 25.6 ppg (28th), and their offense is also well down the list, generating 269.5 ypg (30th) and 16.6 ppg (27th).
Kansas City cashed in both of last season’s meetings with Denver, rolling 33-19 at home as a hefty 9½-point pup in September, then losing 24-17 on the road in December as a nine-point ‘dog. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, as is the underdog in that stretch, and the Broncs are 1-4 ATS on their last five trips to Arrowhead. In fact, the home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes.
The Broncos sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 ATS after either a SU or pointspread victory, but they also carry numerous spread-covering skids, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 in December, 6-21-1 laying points, 5-15-1 in the AFC West, 5-15-1 against losing teams and 6-10-1 as a division road chalk. Also, the SU winner has cashed in Denver’s last 14 starts.
The Chiefs are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall (all as a ‘dog) and 4-0 after a SU loss, but they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at Arrowhead.
The under is on runs for Denver of 9-2 this season, 11-1 after a SU win, 9-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 against AFC foes, but the over is on surges for the Broncos of 9-4-1 in December, 11-5 in division play and 13-6 against losing teams. Furthermore, the over is on rolls of 3-1-1 overall for K.C., 6-2-2 with the Chiefs a pup and 18-7-2 with Kansas City getting points at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 15 overall and seven of the last eight at Arrowhead Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (3-8, 5-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-5, 4-7 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, suddenly battling for their playoff lives, hope to take advantage of a break in the schedule as they host the hapless Raiders at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh went without Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) on Sunday night at Baltimore and came up just short in a 20-17 overtime loss. It was the Steelers’ third straight defeat, though they covered as a hefty nine-point ‘dog, with the QB’s absence driving up the number. Roethlisberger is expected back this week to lead the NFL’s ninth-best total offense (372.4 ypg), and the Steelers rate third in total defense (288.4 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (18.5 ppg).
Oakland got pelted at Dallas on Thanksgiving in a 24-7 loss as a healthy 13½-point pup, falling to 1-4 SU in its last five starts (2-3 ATS). The woeful Raiders have scored 16 points or less in nine of their 11 games this season and average an NFL-worst 10.5 ppg, behind an offense that nets just 234.4 ypg, ahead of only Cleveland (230.6 ypg).
Oakland is on a 3-1 ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry, most recently winning 20-13 at home as a nine-point pup in October 2006. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four starts against losing teams and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 giving double digits, but they still hold positive ATS streaks of 12-5 in December and 7-3 at Heinz. The Raiders are on a 5-2 ATS uptick following a pointspread loss, but they are also 16-37 ATS in their last 53 December starts and 10-23-1 in their last 34 non-division roadies. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in Oakland’s last 10 games.
Pittsburgh is on “over” runs of 48-22-2 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 18-7 against AFC opponents, and the over is 4-1-1 in Oakland’s last six December games. Conversely, the under for the Raiders is on tears of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 12-4-1 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 after a non-cover and 41-17-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Houston (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) at Jacksonville (6-5, 4-7 ATS)
The Texans look to get their derailed season back on track when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium for a divisional clash with the Jaguars.
Houston, which had won three in a row and five of seven, has since dropped three straight games, including two to Indianapolis that were both within the Texans’ grasp. On Sunday, Houston raced out to a 14-0 lead and was still up 20-7 at halftime, then gave up 28 straight points in the second half of a 35-27 loss to the Colts as a three-point home pup.
The Texans have the third-best passing attack in the league (283.1 ypg), but QB Matt Schaub’s turnovers were a killer in both losses to Indy, as he threw two picks in each game, with one returned for a TD Sunday.
Jacksonville, which had also recently surged into the AFC playoff picture, fell to San Francisco 20-3 as a three-point road pup Sunday, halting a 3-0 SU run (1-2 ATS). The Jags, who have failed to cover in six of their last seven games, have the NFL’s eighth-best rushing attack (132.6 ypg) and 12th-best total offense (354.3 ypg), but that’s only netting them 18.4 ppg (22nd). Meanwhile, Jacksonville is allowing 349.5 ypg and 23.2 ppg, ranking 21st on both counts.
Jacksonville dropped Houston 31-24 as a four-point road pup on Sept. 27, ending a three-game ATS run (2-1 SU) by the Texans in this rivalry. Houston is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes overall and 4-1 on its last five trips to Jacksonville, and the pup is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, the SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight matchups.
The Texans are on ATS streaks of 5-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 after a SU loss, 5-1 in December, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in their last five roadies. On the flip side, along with their current 1-6 ATS nosedive, the Jaguars are in pointspread ruts of 2-11 at home, 1-5 in December, 1-4 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 7-19 against losing teams and 4-9 in the AFC.
The under for Houston is on surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road and 5-1 in conference play, but the over for the Texans is on rolls of 20-7 against winning teams, 19-7 in the AFC South and 18-7-1 after either a SU or an ATS setback. The over for Jacksonville is on runs of 5-1 at home and 4-0 after a SU loss, and in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings, including the September contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER
Tennessee (5-6, 6-5 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-0, 7-3-1 ATS)
The resurgent Titans take on the still-unbeaten Colts in an AFC South clash at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tennessee edged Arizona 20-17 Sunday as a one-point home chalk, getting a TD pass from Vince Young to Kenny Britt on the final play of the game to win SU and ATS for the fifth straight week, after an 0-6 SU start (1-5 ATS). The Titans haven’t lost since Young replaced Kerry Collins at QB, but the bigger key has been RB Chris Johnson running all over everybody. He racked up 154 yards on just 18 carries against the Cardinals, including an 85-yard TD, giving him 800 yards and seven TDs during the win streak.
Indianapolis trailed Houston 14-0 early and 20-7 at halftime, then scored 28 straight points on the way to a 35-27 road victory Sunday giving three points, aided greatly by a Clint Session INT return for a TD. The Colts have trailed in each of their last five games, yet came back and won each time (2-2-1 ATS). QB Peyton Manning leads the No. 1 passing offense (305.7 ypg) and No. 5 scoring offense (27.6 ppg), and the defense is yielding just 16.7 ppg (third).
Indianapolis has won SU and ATS in the last two meetings in this rivalry, after a 5-0 ATS run by Tennessee (3-2 SU). On Oct. 11, Indy rolled 31-9 as a three-point road favorite, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 contests.
The Titans are on a pair 2-5 ATS skids – in the AFC South and against winning teams – but the pointspread streaks head upward from there, including 5-0 overall, 17-7 as a pup, 13-6 as a road ‘dog, 8-1 as a division pup and 10-1 getting 3½ to 10 points. The Colts, meanwhile, are on home ATS skids of 1-3-1 overall and 2-7 in division games, though they remain on ATS upswings of 5-0 against losing teams, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2-1 overall (all after a SU win) and 6-2-1 giving points.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 6-2 in division play and 13-5-1 against winning teams, and the under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 4-1 in the division and 9-4 in conference action. That said, the over is 4-1 in the Titans’ last five roadies, 17-8-1 in their last 26 December outings and 5-1 in the Colts’ last six against losing teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine meetings overall and in four straight at Lucas Oil Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Philadelphia (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Atlanta (6-5, 7-4 ATS)
The Eagles pursue their third straight win when they travel to the Georgia Dome for a date with the Falcons, who need a win to stay in the postseason picture.
Philadelphia squeaked past Washington 27-24 Sunday as a heavy 9½-point home chalk, rallying from eight points down in the fourth quarter and winning on a field goal in the final two minutes, but failing to cash for the third time in four weeks. The Eagles are putting up 26.6 ppg (seventh) on 357.1 ypg (11th), keyed by their plus-9 turnover ratio, which rates fourth in the league. QB Donovan McNabb has 15 TDs, against just six INTs.
Atlanta overcame Tampa Bay 20-17 on a last-minute Chris Redman-to-Roddy White TD pass, snapping a two-game SU skid but falling well short as a 12-point home favorite. The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack in total offense at 339.5 ypg (16th), but they’re turning those yards into 24.7 ppg (tied for eighth). Defensively, they are at 27th in yards allowed (373.9 ypg) and 19th in points allowed (22.3 ppg).
Starting QB Matt Ryan suffered a toe injury against the Bucs and has already been ruled out for this week, meaning Redman will get the start. Ryan played just one series last week, and Redman filled in capably by completing 23 of 41 passes for two TDs, with no INTS.
Philly has won six of the last seven clashes (5-2 ATS) between these NFC rivals, including a 27-14 victory in October 2008 as a 9½-point home chalk. The Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 3-1-1 ATS on their last five trips to the Georgia Dome. The favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run, and the home team is also 5-2 ATS in that stretch.
The Eagles are on ATS rolls of 15-7 on the highway, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 in December and 6-3 as a non-division road chalk, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win. The Falcons sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-0 after an ATS loss and 4-1 against winning teams, but they are in a 5-16-1 ATS rut as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
The under is 21-10-1 in Philadelphia’s last 32 games as a road chalk, but the over for the Eagles is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 7-1 after a non-cover and 7-2 in the NFC. Likewise, the over for Atlanta is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Falcons a ‘dog, 10-2 with Mike Smith’s troops a home pup, 5-1 against winning teams and 20-8 within the NFC.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings overall and has hit in four straight in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Detroit (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (8-3, 6-5 ATS)
The Bengals resume their postseason push, while the lowly Lions play out the string in a non-conference contest at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati bounced back from a stunning loss at Oakland with a 16-7 victory over Cleveland on Sunday, but it failed to cover for the second straight week, going off as a heavy 12-point chalk. With RBs Larry Johnson (22 carries, 107 yards) and Bernard Scott (18 carries, 87 yards) filling in for injured Cedric Benson, the Bengals rolled up a whopping 210 rushing yards and still possess the No. 7 rushing attack in the league, at 135.3 ypg.
Cincy also has the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg) and No. 6 total defense (297.6 ypg).
Detroit couldn’t maintain its momentum from a wild win over Cleveland two weeks ago, getting pounded by Green Bay 34-12 on Thanksgiving as a 12-point home pup. The Lions, who haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2007 season, field the NFL’s worst total defense (394.3 ypg) and worst scoring defense (30.5 ppg), while averaging just 17.5 ppg (25th).
These two teams meet regularly in the preseason, but they’ve had just two regular-season meetings this decade, with Cincinnati going 2-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Bengals rolled 41-17 as a 10-point road favorite in December 2005.
The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December starts and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 against losing teams, 1-7 as a home chalk and 3-8-2 as a non-division home favorite. The Lions are loaded with negative ATS strings, including 0-5-1 overall, 0-4-1 on the highway (all as a pup), 1-6-1 as a double-digit ‘dog, 0-3-1 against winning teams and 0-4-1 after a SU loss.
Cincinnati is on “under” tears of 5-2 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 7-0 as a home favorite, 4-0 in December and 6-2-1 against losing teams. On the flip side, Detroit is on “over” streaks of 9-2 in December, 22-8 on the road, 11-3 getting more than 10 points on the highway and 11-4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
New Orleans (11-0, 8-3 ATS) at Washington (3-8, 5-7 ATS)
The red-hot Saints try to remain unbeaten when they head to FedEx Field to face the struggling Redskins.
New Orleans hammered New England on Monday night 38-17, getting five TD passes from Drew Brees to easily cash as a one-point home favorite. The Saints again proved they can score regardless of the strength of opponent, and they are well ahead of the rest of the league in averaging 37 ppg, with the Vikings six points back in second. New Orleans is also No. 1 in total yards, at 425.9 per game, and its opportunistic defense has the team at No. 2 in turnover margin (plus-12).
Washington gave Philadelphia a tough contest, but ultimately blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in losing 27-24 as a 9½-point road ‘dog Sunday, though it covered for the third straight week (1-2 SU). The Redskins are near the bottom of the league in total offense (309 ypg, 25th), scoring (15.5 ppg, 29th) and turnover margin (minus-6, 28th). The one bright spot is a defense yielding just 298.3 ypg (seventh) and 18.6 ppg (10th).
Washington has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 29-24 home victory as a one-point chalk in Week 2 last year. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the SU winner has covered in the last eight clashes.
The Saints are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 13-4-1 overall, 20-8 as a favorite, 10-1 laying 3½ to 10 points, 7-1-1 on the road, 6-1 as a road chalk, 7-2 as a non-division road favorite and 6-2 against losing teams. The Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight December outings and 4-2-3 ATS in their last nine as a ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 6-11-2 overall, 2-9 at FedEx and 4-9-1 following a SU loss.
The over for New Orleans is on a bundle of rolls, including 21-10-1 overall (6-5 this year), 9-1 in December, 20-6-1 against the NFC, 15-6 with the Saints a road chalk and 17-7 after a SU win. The over has also hit in four of the last five for Washington (all as a pup), but the under for the Redskins is on runs of 10-2 at home, 4-1 in December and 11-5-1 in conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay (1-10, 4-7 ATS) at Carolina (4-7 SU and ATS)
Two teams whose seasons are virtually over get together when the dismal Buccaneers trek to Charlotte to face the division rival Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Tampa Bay had Atlanta on the ropes before giving up a TD pass in the final minute, losing 20-17 Sunday, but covering as a 12-point road underdog. The Buccaneers are averaging just 274.8 ypg (29th) and 16.5 ppg (28th), and their defense is also near the bottom of the league, giving up 370.9 ypg (26th) and 28.5 ppg (31st).
Carolina lost to the Jets 17-6 Sunday as a 3½-point road pup and has followed a 4-1 ATS surge by dropping its last two games SU and ATS. The Panthers are putting up just 18.1 ppg (23rd) and have been hampered by a minus-9 turnover margin, the third-worst in the league, with QB Jake Delhomme tossing 18 INTs, tied for the second-highest total in the NFL. However, Delhomme (broken finger) is out with a broken finger, so Matt Moore will start this week.
Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this NFC South rivalry, including a 28-21 road win last month as a three-point chalk.
The Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 1-5 in December, 3-9 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover and 3-8 against losing teams, and they’ve lost 14 of their last 15 games overall SU (5-10 ATS). The Panthers are on pointspread declines of 1-5 at home, 0-4 as a home chalk and 2-5 after either a SU or an ATS loss, but they also hold positive ATS streaks of 4-0 against NFC foes, 6-1 in December, 5-1 in division play and 8-3 as a division chalk.
The over for Tampa is on runs 12-5 on the road, 8-1 in December and 13-3 against losing teams, and the over is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 NFC games and 6-1 in its last seven division starts. However, the under is 15-6 in Carolina’s last 21 home games, 19-7 in the Panthers’ last 26 as a home chalk and 6-2 in the Bucs’ last eight division games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Charlotte.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
St. Louis (1-10, 5-6 ATS) at Chicago (4-7 SU and ATS)
The freefalling Bears look for their first victory since Nov. 1 when they play host to the dismal Rams at Soldier Field.
Chicago got drilled at Minnesota 36-10 Sunday as a 10-point ‘dog, losing SU and ATS for the fourth straight week. The Bears have been held to 21 points or less in eight of 11 games, despite the acquisition of strong-armed QB Jay Cutler, who has been a letdown in heaving a league-worst 20 INTs, offsetting his 16 TD passes. Chicago also has the league’s worst running attack, at 85.1 ypg.
St. Louis fell to Seattle 27-17 last week as a 3½-point home underdog, losing for the third consecutive time SU while also halting a three-game ATS uptick. RB Steven Jackson (238 carries, 1,120 yards, 4.7 ypc) is the NFL’s second-leading rusher, but the Rams are otherwise awful offensively, averaging 310.3 ypg (25th) and just 11.8 ppg (30th). Defensively, it’s just as bad, with St. Louis yielding 374.2 ypg (28th) and 27 ppg (30th).
Chicago is on a 4-0 ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry, winning and cashing in the last two contests, including a 27-3 whipping as a seven-point road chalk in November 2008. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six laying 3½ to 10 points, but along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, they are mired in ATS funks of 0-5 in the NFC, 1-4 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 3-6-1 as a non-division home favorite.
The Rams are on a 1-20 SU nosedive (9-12 ATS), and they are on pointspread plunges of 2-5 in December, 12-27 after a SU loss and 10-22 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. That said, they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five against losing teams and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-division roadies.
Chicago is on a handful of “under” runs, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss or an ATS setback, 4-1 in conference play and 6-2 against losing teams, though the over is 19-7 in the Bears’ last 26 as a home chalk. For St. Louis, the under is on stretches of 4-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-2-1 after a non-cover, but the over has hit in five of the Rams’ last seven games and is on a 10-4-1 December run for St. Louis.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New England (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Miami (5-6 SU and ATS)
The Patriots hope to rebound from a nationally televised beatdown when they head to South Beach for an AFC East clash with the Dolphins at LandShark Stadium.
New England gave up five Drew Brees TD passes in a much-anticipated Monday night showdown, getting blown out 38-17 at New Orleans as a one-point pup. New England, which has followed a 5-1 SU run by losing two of its last three (2-1 ATS), still sports the NFL’s second-most prolific offense, at 411.5 ypg, while scoring 27.9 ppg (fourth). They also carry a solid plus-10 turnover margin (third), while allowing just 18.4 ppg (seventh).
Miami had a two-game win streak (1-1 ATS) end with a 31-14 loss at Buffalo as a 3½-point road favorite. Scoring defense has been an issue for the Dolphins, who are giving up 25 ppg (26th) on 341 ypg (19th), while putting up 23.3 ppg (13th) on 317.9 ypg (22nd). Despite the loss of RB Ronnie Brown, Miami’s running game still rates third at 156.1 ypg, with Ricky Williams putting up three straight games of 102 yards or more.
New England dropped Miami 27-17 four weeks ago, winning for the fourth time in the last five games in this rivalry (2-3 ATS), but falling just short as a 10½-point home favorite. The road team has now cashed five straight times.
The Patriots are on positive ATS runs of 38-18-1 in roadies, 15-4 in non-division road tilts, 18-7 as a road chalk, 5-1 against losing teams, 21-5-1 after a SU loss and 8-2-1 after a non-cover. The Dolphins are a dismal 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games at Land Shark (1-4 ATS as a home pup), but they are on ATS upticks of 6-1 in division play, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 against the AFC.
The under for New England is on streaks of 3-1-1 overall and 5-1 on the highway, but the over is on surges of 4-1 in December, 3-1-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 after an ATS setback. In addition, the over for Miami is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at Land Shark, 4-1 with the Dolphins a home pup and 4-1 in division play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER
San Diego (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Cleveland (1-10, 5-6 ATS)
The streaking Chargers pursue their seventh consecutive win with a trip to Ohio to take on the Browns, who are tied with Tampa Bay for the league’s worst record.
San Diego punished Kansas City 43-14 Sunday, easily cashing as an overwhelming 13½-point favorite to move to 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six outings. The Chargers have scored 31 points or more each of the last three weeks, outscoring the three foes by a total of 106-40, and they now average 28.4 ppg (third) while allowing 19.9 (14th).
Cleveland lost to Cincinnati 16-7 for its sixth consecutive defeat, halting a modest two-game ATS run in the process. The Browns have been held to seven points or less in seven of their 11 games this year, and for the season, their dismal 11.1 ppg average leads only the Raiders (10.5 ppg). Meanwhile, the defense is giving up 25.4 ppg (27th).
San Diego has won four of five against Cleveland (3-2 ATS), including the last three (2-1 ATS). Most recently, the Chargers won 32-25 as a 13-point chalk in November 2006, ending a 4-0 ATS surge by the SU winner in this rivalry.
The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a chalk of more than 10 and are on an 0-6 ATS dive as a non-division road favorite, but they are otherwise on ATS rolls of 4-0 overall, 8-1 in December and 4-1 laying points. The Browns are on a 1-16 SU freefall (5-11-1 ATS), and they are in additional ATS ruts of 0-4 in December, 1-7-1 at home, 4-10-1 after a SU loss and 2-5 in non-division home games.
The over for San Diego is on stretches of 5-2-1 on the highway, 7-3-2 as a chalk, 4-0-1 in December, 9-4 after a SU win and 5-2 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the under for Cleveland is on tears of 4-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 9-1-1 in December, 7-2 against AFC opponents, 5-2 at home and 34-16-3 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
San Francisco (5-6, 7-2-2 ATS) at Seattle (4-7 SU and ATS)
The Seahawks, coming off three straight road games, return to Qwest Field for an NFC West contest against the 49ers.
Seattle dropped the first two games of its road trip, then beat St. Louis 27-17 Sunday as a 3½-point favorite, winning and covering for just the second time in its last seven games. The Seahawks haven’t been impressive offensively or defensively this season, averaging 319.5 ypg (21st) and 20.3 ppg (20th), while allowing 348.8 ypg (20th) and 22.7 ppg (also 20th).
San Francisco rolled past Jacksonville 20-3 Sunday as a three-point home chalk, stemming a 1-5 SU skid (2-1-2 ATS). The 49ers rate in the top half of the league in scoring defense, yielding 19.4 ppg (11th), despite ranking 22nd in total yards allowed (351.4 ypg), and they are narrowly outscoring opponents on the year, at 20.7 ppg (19th).
These two teams have alternated SU and ATS wins over their last four meetings, with San Fran notching a 23-10 victory on Sept. 20 as a one-point home favorite. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight clashes in this rivalry.
The Seahawks are on ATS slides of 3-7 overall, 2-10 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-6 in the NFC, but they’ve gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight at Qwest, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games and 4-0 ATS in their last four against losing teams. Seattle is also on an 8-2 ATS run as a division favorite. The 49ers are on ATS upturns of 7-2-3 overall, 6-0-1 as a road pup, 5-1-2 in conference play and 5-1 inside the division, but they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against losing teams.
The under is on runs of 7-3-1 at home for Seattle, 5-2 with the Seahawks coming off a SU win, 4-0 for San Francisco in division action and 4-1 for the Niners in December. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings. However, the over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five overall and 26-10-2 in the Seahawks’ last 38 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (6-5, 4-7)
The Giants, desperate for a win if they hope to stay in the postseason picture, take on the NFC East-leading Cowboys at the Meadowlands.
New York got drilled on Thanksgiving night in Denver 26-6 giving 4½ points for its fifth loss in the last six games, going 0-6 ATS in that stretch after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start to the season. New York is still averaging 24.7 ppg (tied for eighth), but has scored 20 points or less in four of its last five outings. And the Giants have given up at least 21 points in each of the last six games, with three teams breaking 30 points.
Dallas dumped Oakland 24-7 as a heavy 13½-point home favorite, also on Thanksgiving, to post its sixth victory in the last seven games (4-3 ATS). The victory also snapped a two-game ATS skid in which the Pokes totaled just 14 points. Dallas fields the fourth-best total offense at 392.1 ypg, including 138 on the ground (sixth), though it sits a middling 14th in scoring (23.2 ppg). However, Dallas is allowing just 16.5 ppg, second-best in the NFL.
New York is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this heated rivalry, including a 33-31 victory catching three points in Dallas in Week 2 this season. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in the last dozen meetings overall (3-1-1 ATS in New York), and the SU winner is on an 8-0-2 ATS tear.
The Giants’ current skid has led to a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 0-6 against winning teams, 0-5-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 0-4 against the NFC and 1-5 at home, though they remain on a 15-5-1 ATS tear as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference starts and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win, but they shoulder ATS slides of 3-10 in the NFC East, 3-8 in roadies and 2-5 as a road chalk.
The under is on a 5-1-1 run with New York a home pup of three or less, and for Dallas, the under is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 laying three or less and 4-0 as a road chalk of that same price. However, the over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last seven NFC games and 15-7-2 in the Cowboys’ last 23 as a road chalk, and in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last eight clashes at the Meadowlands.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Minnesota (10-1, 7-3-1 ATS) at Arizona (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
The Brett Favre-led Vikings continue hurtling toward the playoffs when they travel to the desert to face the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Minnesota ripped Chicago 36-10 last week as a 10-point home chalk, posting its fourth consecutive double-digit win (3-0-1 ATS). The 40-year-old Favre has been phenomenal this season with 24 TD passes (second) against just three INTs, and the Vikes are ringing up 31.1 ppg (second) and 390 ypg (fifth). Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in all but one game this year, including seven games in the 30s.
Defensively, the Vikings are eighth in both points allowed (18.5 ppg) and total yards allowed (303.5 ypg), and they lead the league with 40 sacks.
Arizona went without QB Kurt Warner (concussion) Sunday at Tennessee and lost 20-17 on a last-second TD pass as a one-point ‘dog, ending a three-game SU run (2-1 ATS). The Cardinals’ passing game stands fifth at 265.2 ypg, helping them score 24.3 ppg (10th), but whether Warner will be around to lead them this week could be a game-time decision. Arizona is giving up 366.9 total ypg (24th) but just 19.7 ppg (13th).
Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 35-14 road rout last December getting four points. The Vikes are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.
The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus winning teams, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 3-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 in conference play, 5-1 on the highway and 4-1-1 giving points. Likewise, the Cardinals are on a batch of ATS rolls, including 11-5 overall, 7-1 getting points, 5-1 as a home pup, 6-1 against winning teams and 8-3 in the NFC.
The under for Minnesota is on surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 28-12-1 after an ATS win and 6-2-1 with the Vikes favored, though the over is 9-4-1 in Minny’s last 14 roadies. Arizona is on “over” surges of 19-7 at home, 19-7 against winning teams, 41-16 as an underdog and 4-0 as a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6
NFL
Denver (7-4 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (3-8, 5-6 ATS)
The Broncos aim to keep their playoff position intact when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the division rival Chiefs.
Denver pounded the Giants 26-6 on Thanksgiving night as a 4½-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slide that followed a 6-0 SU and ATS start. After four games of allowing 27 points or more, the Broncos’ defense looked more like a unit that, for the season, is yielding just 17.2 ppg (fifth). Denver also stands fifth in total defense (295 ypg), helping compensate for an offense gaining 327.5 ypg (18th) and scoring just 17.8 ppg (24th).
Kansas City followed its huge home upset of the Steelers with a blowout loss at San Diego on Sunday, falling 43-14 as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog to end a two-game SU and three-game ATS surge. The Chiefs are among the league’s worst defensively, allowing 392.9 ypg (30th) and 25.6 ppg (28th), and their offense is also well down the list, generating 269.5 ypg (30th) and 16.6 ppg (27th).
Kansas City cashed in both of last season’s meetings with Denver, rolling 33-19 at home as a hefty 9½-point pup in September, then losing 24-17 on the road in December as a nine-point ‘dog. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, as is the underdog in that stretch, and the Broncs are 1-4 ATS on their last five trips to Arrowhead. In fact, the home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes.
The Broncos sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 ATS after either a SU or pointspread victory, but they also carry numerous spread-covering skids, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 in December, 6-21-1 laying points, 5-15-1 in the AFC West, 5-15-1 against losing teams and 6-10-1 as a division road chalk. Also, the SU winner has cashed in Denver’s last 14 starts.
The Chiefs are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall (all as a ‘dog) and 4-0 after a SU loss, but they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at Arrowhead.
The under is on runs for Denver of 9-2 this season, 11-1 after a SU win, 9-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 against AFC foes, but the over is on surges for the Broncos of 9-4-1 in December, 11-5 in division play and 13-6 against losing teams. Furthermore, the over is on rolls of 3-1-1 overall for K.C., 6-2-2 with the Chiefs a pup and 18-7-2 with Kansas City getting points at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 15 overall and seven of the last eight at Arrowhead Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (3-8, 5-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-5, 4-7 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, suddenly battling for their playoff lives, hope to take advantage of a break in the schedule as they host the hapless Raiders at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh went without Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) on Sunday night at Baltimore and came up just short in a 20-17 overtime loss. It was the Steelers’ third straight defeat, though they covered as a hefty nine-point ‘dog, with the QB’s absence driving up the number. Roethlisberger is expected back this week to lead the NFL’s ninth-best total offense (372.4 ypg), and the Steelers rate third in total defense (288.4 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (18.5 ppg).
Oakland got pelted at Dallas on Thanksgiving in a 24-7 loss as a healthy 13½-point pup, falling to 1-4 SU in its last five starts (2-3 ATS). The woeful Raiders have scored 16 points or less in nine of their 11 games this season and average an NFL-worst 10.5 ppg, behind an offense that nets just 234.4 ypg, ahead of only Cleveland (230.6 ypg).
Oakland is on a 3-1 ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry, most recently winning 20-13 at home as a nine-point pup in October 2006. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four starts against losing teams and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 giving double digits, but they still hold positive ATS streaks of 12-5 in December and 7-3 at Heinz. The Raiders are on a 5-2 ATS uptick following a pointspread loss, but they are also 16-37 ATS in their last 53 December starts and 10-23-1 in their last 34 non-division roadies. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in Oakland’s last 10 games.
Pittsburgh is on “over” runs of 48-22-2 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 18-7 against AFC opponents, and the over is 4-1-1 in Oakland’s last six December games. Conversely, the under for the Raiders is on tears of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 12-4-1 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 after a non-cover and 41-17-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Houston (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) at Jacksonville (6-5, 4-7 ATS)
The Texans look to get their derailed season back on track when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium for a divisional clash with the Jaguars.
Houston, which had won three in a row and five of seven, has since dropped three straight games, including two to Indianapolis that were both within the Texans’ grasp. On Sunday, Houston raced out to a 14-0 lead and was still up 20-7 at halftime, then gave up 28 straight points in the second half of a 35-27 loss to the Colts as a three-point home pup.
The Texans have the third-best passing attack in the league (283.1 ypg), but QB Matt Schaub’s turnovers were a killer in both losses to Indy, as he threw two picks in each game, with one returned for a TD Sunday.
Jacksonville, which had also recently surged into the AFC playoff picture, fell to San Francisco 20-3 as a three-point road pup Sunday, halting a 3-0 SU run (1-2 ATS). The Jags, who have failed to cover in six of their last seven games, have the NFL’s eighth-best rushing attack (132.6 ypg) and 12th-best total offense (354.3 ypg), but that’s only netting them 18.4 ppg (22nd). Meanwhile, Jacksonville is allowing 349.5 ypg and 23.2 ppg, ranking 21st on both counts.
Jacksonville dropped Houston 31-24 as a four-point road pup on Sept. 27, ending a three-game ATS run (2-1 SU) by the Texans in this rivalry. Houston is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes overall and 4-1 on its last five trips to Jacksonville, and the pup is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, the SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight matchups.
The Texans are on ATS streaks of 5-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 after a SU loss, 5-1 in December, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in their last five roadies. On the flip side, along with their current 1-6 ATS nosedive, the Jaguars are in pointspread ruts of 2-11 at home, 1-5 in December, 1-4 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 7-19 against losing teams and 4-9 in the AFC.
The under for Houston is on surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road and 5-1 in conference play, but the over for the Texans is on rolls of 20-7 against winning teams, 19-7 in the AFC South and 18-7-1 after either a SU or an ATS setback. The over for Jacksonville is on runs of 5-1 at home and 4-0 after a SU loss, and in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings, including the September contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER
Tennessee (5-6, 6-5 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-0, 7-3-1 ATS)
The resurgent Titans take on the still-unbeaten Colts in an AFC South clash at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tennessee edged Arizona 20-17 Sunday as a one-point home chalk, getting a TD pass from Vince Young to Kenny Britt on the final play of the game to win SU and ATS for the fifth straight week, after an 0-6 SU start (1-5 ATS). The Titans haven’t lost since Young replaced Kerry Collins at QB, but the bigger key has been RB Chris Johnson running all over everybody. He racked up 154 yards on just 18 carries against the Cardinals, including an 85-yard TD, giving him 800 yards and seven TDs during the win streak.
Indianapolis trailed Houston 14-0 early and 20-7 at halftime, then scored 28 straight points on the way to a 35-27 road victory Sunday giving three points, aided greatly by a Clint Session INT return for a TD. The Colts have trailed in each of their last five games, yet came back and won each time (2-2-1 ATS). QB Peyton Manning leads the No. 1 passing offense (305.7 ypg) and No. 5 scoring offense (27.6 ppg), and the defense is yielding just 16.7 ppg (third).
Indianapolis has won SU and ATS in the last two meetings in this rivalry, after a 5-0 ATS run by Tennessee (3-2 SU). On Oct. 11, Indy rolled 31-9 as a three-point road favorite, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 contests.
The Titans are on a pair 2-5 ATS skids – in the AFC South and against winning teams – but the pointspread streaks head upward from there, including 5-0 overall, 17-7 as a pup, 13-6 as a road ‘dog, 8-1 as a division pup and 10-1 getting 3½ to 10 points. The Colts, meanwhile, are on home ATS skids of 1-3-1 overall and 2-7 in division games, though they remain on ATS upswings of 5-0 against losing teams, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2-1 overall (all after a SU win) and 6-2-1 giving points.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 6-2 in division play and 13-5-1 against winning teams, and the under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 4-1 in the division and 9-4 in conference action. That said, the over is 4-1 in the Titans’ last five roadies, 17-8-1 in their last 26 December outings and 5-1 in the Colts’ last six against losing teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine meetings overall and in four straight at Lucas Oil Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Philadelphia (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Atlanta (6-5, 7-4 ATS)
The Eagles pursue their third straight win when they travel to the Georgia Dome for a date with the Falcons, who need a win to stay in the postseason picture.
Philadelphia squeaked past Washington 27-24 Sunday as a heavy 9½-point home chalk, rallying from eight points down in the fourth quarter and winning on a field goal in the final two minutes, but failing to cash for the third time in four weeks. The Eagles are putting up 26.6 ppg (seventh) on 357.1 ypg (11th), keyed by their plus-9 turnover ratio, which rates fourth in the league. QB Donovan McNabb has 15 TDs, against just six INTs.
Atlanta overcame Tampa Bay 20-17 on a last-minute Chris Redman-to-Roddy White TD pass, snapping a two-game SU skid but falling well short as a 12-point home favorite. The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack in total offense at 339.5 ypg (16th), but they’re turning those yards into 24.7 ppg (tied for eighth). Defensively, they are at 27th in yards allowed (373.9 ypg) and 19th in points allowed (22.3 ppg).
Starting QB Matt Ryan suffered a toe injury against the Bucs and has already been ruled out for this week, meaning Redman will get the start. Ryan played just one series last week, and Redman filled in capably by completing 23 of 41 passes for two TDs, with no INTS.
Philly has won six of the last seven clashes (5-2 ATS) between these NFC rivals, including a 27-14 victory in October 2008 as a 9½-point home chalk. The Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 3-1-1 ATS on their last five trips to the Georgia Dome. The favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run, and the home team is also 5-2 ATS in that stretch.
The Eagles are on ATS rolls of 15-7 on the highway, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 in December and 6-3 as a non-division road chalk, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win. The Falcons sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-0 after an ATS loss and 4-1 against winning teams, but they are in a 5-16-1 ATS rut as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
The under is 21-10-1 in Philadelphia’s last 32 games as a road chalk, but the over for the Eagles is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 7-1 after a non-cover and 7-2 in the NFC. Likewise, the over for Atlanta is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Falcons a ‘dog, 10-2 with Mike Smith’s troops a home pup, 5-1 against winning teams and 20-8 within the NFC.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings overall and has hit in four straight in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Detroit (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (8-3, 6-5 ATS)
The Bengals resume their postseason push, while the lowly Lions play out the string in a non-conference contest at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati bounced back from a stunning loss at Oakland with a 16-7 victory over Cleveland on Sunday, but it failed to cover for the second straight week, going off as a heavy 12-point chalk. With RBs Larry Johnson (22 carries, 107 yards) and Bernard Scott (18 carries, 87 yards) filling in for injured Cedric Benson, the Bengals rolled up a whopping 210 rushing yards and still possess the No. 7 rushing attack in the league, at 135.3 ypg.
Cincy also has the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg) and No. 6 total defense (297.6 ypg).
Detroit couldn’t maintain its momentum from a wild win over Cleveland two weeks ago, getting pounded by Green Bay 34-12 on Thanksgiving as a 12-point home pup. The Lions, who haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2007 season, field the NFL’s worst total defense (394.3 ypg) and worst scoring defense (30.5 ppg), while averaging just 17.5 ppg (25th).
These two teams meet regularly in the preseason, but they’ve had just two regular-season meetings this decade, with Cincinnati going 2-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Bengals rolled 41-17 as a 10-point road favorite in December 2005.
The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December starts and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 against losing teams, 1-7 as a home chalk and 3-8-2 as a non-division home favorite. The Lions are loaded with negative ATS strings, including 0-5-1 overall, 0-4-1 on the highway (all as a pup), 1-6-1 as a double-digit ‘dog, 0-3-1 against winning teams and 0-4-1 after a SU loss.
Cincinnati is on “under” tears of 5-2 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 7-0 as a home favorite, 4-0 in December and 6-2-1 against losing teams. On the flip side, Detroit is on “over” streaks of 9-2 in December, 22-8 on the road, 11-3 getting more than 10 points on the highway and 11-4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
New Orleans (11-0, 8-3 ATS) at Washington (3-8, 5-7 ATS)
The red-hot Saints try to remain unbeaten when they head to FedEx Field to face the struggling Redskins.
New Orleans hammered New England on Monday night 38-17, getting five TD passes from Drew Brees to easily cash as a one-point home favorite. The Saints again proved they can score regardless of the strength of opponent, and they are well ahead of the rest of the league in averaging 37 ppg, with the Vikings six points back in second. New Orleans is also No. 1 in total yards, at 425.9 per game, and its opportunistic defense has the team at No. 2 in turnover margin (plus-12).
Washington gave Philadelphia a tough contest, but ultimately blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in losing 27-24 as a 9½-point road ‘dog Sunday, though it covered for the third straight week (1-2 SU). The Redskins are near the bottom of the league in total offense (309 ypg, 25th), scoring (15.5 ppg, 29th) and turnover margin (minus-6, 28th). The one bright spot is a defense yielding just 298.3 ypg (seventh) and 18.6 ppg (10th).
Washington has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 29-24 home victory as a one-point chalk in Week 2 last year. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the SU winner has covered in the last eight clashes.
The Saints are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 13-4-1 overall, 20-8 as a favorite, 10-1 laying 3½ to 10 points, 7-1-1 on the road, 6-1 as a road chalk, 7-2 as a non-division road favorite and 6-2 against losing teams. The Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight December outings and 4-2-3 ATS in their last nine as a ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 6-11-2 overall, 2-9 at FedEx and 4-9-1 following a SU loss.
The over for New Orleans is on a bundle of rolls, including 21-10-1 overall (6-5 this year), 9-1 in December, 20-6-1 against the NFC, 15-6 with the Saints a road chalk and 17-7 after a SU win. The over has also hit in four of the last five for Washington (all as a pup), but the under for the Redskins is on runs of 10-2 at home, 4-1 in December and 11-5-1 in conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay (1-10, 4-7 ATS) at Carolina (4-7 SU and ATS)
Two teams whose seasons are virtually over get together when the dismal Buccaneers trek to Charlotte to face the division rival Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Tampa Bay had Atlanta on the ropes before giving up a TD pass in the final minute, losing 20-17 Sunday, but covering as a 12-point road underdog. The Buccaneers are averaging just 274.8 ypg (29th) and 16.5 ppg (28th), and their defense is also near the bottom of the league, giving up 370.9 ypg (26th) and 28.5 ppg (31st).
Carolina lost to the Jets 17-6 Sunday as a 3½-point road pup and has followed a 4-1 ATS surge by dropping its last two games SU and ATS. The Panthers are putting up just 18.1 ppg (23rd) and have been hampered by a minus-9 turnover margin, the third-worst in the league, with QB Jake Delhomme tossing 18 INTs, tied for the second-highest total in the NFL. However, Delhomme (broken finger) is out with a broken finger, so Matt Moore will start this week.
Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this NFC South rivalry, including a 28-21 road win last month as a three-point chalk.
The Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 1-5 in December, 3-9 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover and 3-8 against losing teams, and they’ve lost 14 of their last 15 games overall SU (5-10 ATS). The Panthers are on pointspread declines of 1-5 at home, 0-4 as a home chalk and 2-5 after either a SU or an ATS loss, but they also hold positive ATS streaks of 4-0 against NFC foes, 6-1 in December, 5-1 in division play and 8-3 as a division chalk.
The over for Tampa is on runs 12-5 on the road, 8-1 in December and 13-3 against losing teams, and the over is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 NFC games and 6-1 in its last seven division starts. However, the under is 15-6 in Carolina’s last 21 home games, 19-7 in the Panthers’ last 26 as a home chalk and 6-2 in the Bucs’ last eight division games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Charlotte.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
St. Louis (1-10, 5-6 ATS) at Chicago (4-7 SU and ATS)
The freefalling Bears look for their first victory since Nov. 1 when they play host to the dismal Rams at Soldier Field.
Chicago got drilled at Minnesota 36-10 Sunday as a 10-point ‘dog, losing SU and ATS for the fourth straight week. The Bears have been held to 21 points or less in eight of 11 games, despite the acquisition of strong-armed QB Jay Cutler, who has been a letdown in heaving a league-worst 20 INTs, offsetting his 16 TD passes. Chicago also has the league’s worst running attack, at 85.1 ypg.
St. Louis fell to Seattle 27-17 last week as a 3½-point home underdog, losing for the third consecutive time SU while also halting a three-game ATS uptick. RB Steven Jackson (238 carries, 1,120 yards, 4.7 ypc) is the NFL’s second-leading rusher, but the Rams are otherwise awful offensively, averaging 310.3 ypg (25th) and just 11.8 ppg (30th). Defensively, it’s just as bad, with St. Louis yielding 374.2 ypg (28th) and 27 ppg (30th).
Chicago is on a 4-0 ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry, winning and cashing in the last two contests, including a 27-3 whipping as a seven-point road chalk in November 2008. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six laying 3½ to 10 points, but along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, they are mired in ATS funks of 0-5 in the NFC, 1-4 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 3-6-1 as a non-division home favorite.
The Rams are on a 1-20 SU nosedive (9-12 ATS), and they are on pointspread plunges of 2-5 in December, 12-27 after a SU loss and 10-22 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. That said, they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five against losing teams and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-division roadies.
Chicago is on a handful of “under” runs, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss or an ATS setback, 4-1 in conference play and 6-2 against losing teams, though the over is 19-7 in the Bears’ last 26 as a home chalk. For St. Louis, the under is on stretches of 4-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-2-1 after a non-cover, but the over has hit in five of the Rams’ last seven games and is on a 10-4-1 December run for St. Louis.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New England (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Miami (5-6 SU and ATS)
The Patriots hope to rebound from a nationally televised beatdown when they head to South Beach for an AFC East clash with the Dolphins at LandShark Stadium.
New England gave up five Drew Brees TD passes in a much-anticipated Monday night showdown, getting blown out 38-17 at New Orleans as a one-point pup. New England, which has followed a 5-1 SU run by losing two of its last three (2-1 ATS), still sports the NFL’s second-most prolific offense, at 411.5 ypg, while scoring 27.9 ppg (fourth). They also carry a solid plus-10 turnover margin (third), while allowing just 18.4 ppg (seventh).
Miami had a two-game win streak (1-1 ATS) end with a 31-14 loss at Buffalo as a 3½-point road favorite. Scoring defense has been an issue for the Dolphins, who are giving up 25 ppg (26th) on 341 ypg (19th), while putting up 23.3 ppg (13th) on 317.9 ypg (22nd). Despite the loss of RB Ronnie Brown, Miami’s running game still rates third at 156.1 ypg, with Ricky Williams putting up three straight games of 102 yards or more.
New England dropped Miami 27-17 four weeks ago, winning for the fourth time in the last five games in this rivalry (2-3 ATS), but falling just short as a 10½-point home favorite. The road team has now cashed five straight times.
The Patriots are on positive ATS runs of 38-18-1 in roadies, 15-4 in non-division road tilts, 18-7 as a road chalk, 5-1 against losing teams, 21-5-1 after a SU loss and 8-2-1 after a non-cover. The Dolphins are a dismal 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games at Land Shark (1-4 ATS as a home pup), but they are on ATS upticks of 6-1 in division play, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 against the AFC.
The under for New England is on streaks of 3-1-1 overall and 5-1 on the highway, but the over is on surges of 4-1 in December, 3-1-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 after an ATS setback. In addition, the over for Miami is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at Land Shark, 4-1 with the Dolphins a home pup and 4-1 in division play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER
San Diego (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Cleveland (1-10, 5-6 ATS)
The streaking Chargers pursue their seventh consecutive win with a trip to Ohio to take on the Browns, who are tied with Tampa Bay for the league’s worst record.
San Diego punished Kansas City 43-14 Sunday, easily cashing as an overwhelming 13½-point favorite to move to 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six outings. The Chargers have scored 31 points or more each of the last three weeks, outscoring the three foes by a total of 106-40, and they now average 28.4 ppg (third) while allowing 19.9 (14th).
Cleveland lost to Cincinnati 16-7 for its sixth consecutive defeat, halting a modest two-game ATS run in the process. The Browns have been held to seven points or less in seven of their 11 games this year, and for the season, their dismal 11.1 ppg average leads only the Raiders (10.5 ppg). Meanwhile, the defense is giving up 25.4 ppg (27th).
San Diego has won four of five against Cleveland (3-2 ATS), including the last three (2-1 ATS). Most recently, the Chargers won 32-25 as a 13-point chalk in November 2006, ending a 4-0 ATS surge by the SU winner in this rivalry.
The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a chalk of more than 10 and are on an 0-6 ATS dive as a non-division road favorite, but they are otherwise on ATS rolls of 4-0 overall, 8-1 in December and 4-1 laying points. The Browns are on a 1-16 SU freefall (5-11-1 ATS), and they are in additional ATS ruts of 0-4 in December, 1-7-1 at home, 4-10-1 after a SU loss and 2-5 in non-division home games.
The over for San Diego is on stretches of 5-2-1 on the highway, 7-3-2 as a chalk, 4-0-1 in December, 9-4 after a SU win and 5-2 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the under for Cleveland is on tears of 4-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 9-1-1 in December, 7-2 against AFC opponents, 5-2 at home and 34-16-3 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
San Francisco (5-6, 7-2-2 ATS) at Seattle (4-7 SU and ATS)
The Seahawks, coming off three straight road games, return to Qwest Field for an NFC West contest against the 49ers.
Seattle dropped the first two games of its road trip, then beat St. Louis 27-17 Sunday as a 3½-point favorite, winning and covering for just the second time in its last seven games. The Seahawks haven’t been impressive offensively or defensively this season, averaging 319.5 ypg (21st) and 20.3 ppg (20th), while allowing 348.8 ypg (20th) and 22.7 ppg (also 20th).
San Francisco rolled past Jacksonville 20-3 Sunday as a three-point home chalk, stemming a 1-5 SU skid (2-1-2 ATS). The 49ers rate in the top half of the league in scoring defense, yielding 19.4 ppg (11th), despite ranking 22nd in total yards allowed (351.4 ypg), and they are narrowly outscoring opponents on the year, at 20.7 ppg (19th).
These two teams have alternated SU and ATS wins over their last four meetings, with San Fran notching a 23-10 victory on Sept. 20 as a one-point home favorite. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight clashes in this rivalry.
The Seahawks are on ATS slides of 3-7 overall, 2-10 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-6 in the NFC, but they’ve gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight at Qwest, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games and 4-0 ATS in their last four against losing teams. Seattle is also on an 8-2 ATS run as a division favorite. The 49ers are on ATS upturns of 7-2-3 overall, 6-0-1 as a road pup, 5-1-2 in conference play and 5-1 inside the division, but they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against losing teams.
The under is on runs of 7-3-1 at home for Seattle, 5-2 with the Seahawks coming off a SU win, 4-0 for San Francisco in division action and 4-1 for the Niners in December. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings. However, the over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five overall and 26-10-2 in the Seahawks’ last 38 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (6-5, 4-7)
The Giants, desperate for a win if they hope to stay in the postseason picture, take on the NFC East-leading Cowboys at the Meadowlands.
New York got drilled on Thanksgiving night in Denver 26-6 giving 4½ points for its fifth loss in the last six games, going 0-6 ATS in that stretch after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start to the season. New York is still averaging 24.7 ppg (tied for eighth), but has scored 20 points or less in four of its last five outings. And the Giants have given up at least 21 points in each of the last six games, with three teams breaking 30 points.
Dallas dumped Oakland 24-7 as a heavy 13½-point home favorite, also on Thanksgiving, to post its sixth victory in the last seven games (4-3 ATS). The victory also snapped a two-game ATS skid in which the Pokes totaled just 14 points. Dallas fields the fourth-best total offense at 392.1 ypg, including 138 on the ground (sixth), though it sits a middling 14th in scoring (23.2 ppg). However, Dallas is allowing just 16.5 ppg, second-best in the NFL.
New York is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this heated rivalry, including a 33-31 victory catching three points in Dallas in Week 2 this season. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in the last dozen meetings overall (3-1-1 ATS in New York), and the SU winner is on an 8-0-2 ATS tear.
The Giants’ current skid has led to a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 0-6 against winning teams, 0-5-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 0-4 against the NFC and 1-5 at home, though they remain on a 15-5-1 ATS tear as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference starts and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win, but they shoulder ATS slides of 3-10 in the NFC East, 3-8 in roadies and 2-5 as a road chalk.
The under is on a 5-1-1 run with New York a home pup of three or less, and for Dallas, the under is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 laying three or less and 4-0 as a road chalk of that same price. However, the over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last seven NFC games and 15-7-2 in the Cowboys’ last 23 as a road chalk, and in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last eight clashes at the Meadowlands.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Minnesota (10-1, 7-3-1 ATS) at Arizona (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
The Brett Favre-led Vikings continue hurtling toward the playoffs when they travel to the desert to face the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Minnesota ripped Chicago 36-10 last week as a 10-point home chalk, posting its fourth consecutive double-digit win (3-0-1 ATS). The 40-year-old Favre has been phenomenal this season with 24 TD passes (second) against just three INTs, and the Vikes are ringing up 31.1 ppg (second) and 390 ypg (fifth). Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in all but one game this year, including seven games in the 30s.
Defensively, the Vikings are eighth in both points allowed (18.5 ppg) and total yards allowed (303.5 ypg), and they lead the league with 40 sacks.
Arizona went without QB Kurt Warner (concussion) Sunday at Tennessee and lost 20-17 on a last-second TD pass as a one-point ‘dog, ending a three-game SU run (2-1 ATS). The Cardinals’ passing game stands fifth at 265.2 ypg, helping them score 24.3 ppg (10th), but whether Warner will be around to lead them this week could be a game-time decision. Arizona is giving up 366.9 total ypg (24th) but just 19.7 ppg (13th).
Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 35-14 road rout last December getting four points. The Vikes are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.
The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus winning teams, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 3-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 in conference play, 5-1 on the highway and 4-1-1 giving points. Likewise, the Cardinals are on a batch of ATS rolls, including 11-5 overall, 7-1 getting points, 5-1 as a home pup, 6-1 against winning teams and 8-3 in the NFC.
The under for Minnesota is on surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 28-12-1 after an ATS win and 6-2-1 with the Vikes favored, though the over is 9-4-1 in Minny’s last 14 roadies. Arizona is on “over” surges of 19-7 at home, 19-7 against winning teams, 41-16 as an underdog and 4-0 as a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
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